'Spectator Value'™? What the heck is that?
For lack of a more creative term, the Spectator Value (or SV) is the area between the lines expressed as a percentage of the possible area, and is one way of predicting how much fun a game will be to watch. It measures how evenly two teams are matched over the course of the season or some number of games, with a high number indicating my prediction of an exciting game. Of course, this has nothing to do with rivalries, ice-girls, new jersies, home-town bias or the price of beer in the arena but only quantifies how similarly two teams have been performing over the course of the calculation. (Formula below)
Example 1: Imagine two teams playing 20 games and taking wildly different ways of reaching the same number of points: one team losing 10 in a row and then winning 10 straight, and the other team doing the opposite. Both teams would have earned 20 points with a record of 10-10-0, but one is considering raising next year's ticket prices and the other is about to get a new coach.
In this example the Spectator Value is 52 -- not too exciting
(remember, a low number predicts a boring game).
Here, our two teams have the same 10-10-0 record but one has won only the even numbered
games, the other the odd. The Spectator Value for this matchup is quite high
(95% = 5% of potential Spectator Value at 20 games), indicating that it
should be a Great game to watch.
Example 3: For reasons obvious to just about anyone who follows professional hockey, here is my favorite example.
And for the nerds:
|SV = 1 - (||(||n||)||/ (n*(n-1)) )|
|Σ||abs(ptsA - ptsB)|
|g = 1|
(Of course, this is all nonsense -- the true measure of the game is whether the beer is cheap and the home-team wins :)